I have to vent.
I thought that by now things would be different. When the Supreme Court handed the presidency to George W. four years ago, I was furious but took comfort in the faith that it could never happen again, that the American people would be wiser the next time around and at least show up at the polls. At that point I couldn't have predicted 9-11 (although George W. had the means) nor did I know that he would charge forward and trample the UN on a unjustified war in Iraq, but I still had faith in the American public.
Now, I see frighteningly amount of red on the U.S. November election map. Is there something you people see in this monkey that I don't see? The gut wrenching feeling I had after Californians approved a proposition to make it legal to try children over the age of fourteen as adults has returned. What seems so obvious to me is obviously not so obvious to everyone else. A lot rides on this election, but what is more troubling to me than having Little Bush around for another four years (at least there's a two term limit) is losing my faith in Americans.
Friday, October 08, 2004
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Remember, they don't win by area, but votes in electral college. see http://www.electoral-vote.com However, the votes have been swinging wildly lately, but Bush had a huge lead a couple of weeks ago. The website also has a movie that shows an animation of the vote movement.
One interesting point that may ease your anxiety. One, right now the two are running even, obviously below 50%. but some believe that the late undecided vote tends to swing more for the challenger because comes election day if they have made up their mind to vote for the incumbent, that means they are more open to change. The fact to support this is that in elections from the last forty years, the incumbent president for re-election either get hit their pre-election poll percentage or do significantly worse. The range is more like +1 to -6% (with Bush Sr over-achieving been the few exception, but still lost big). So whenever the incumbent is under 50% that's good news for the challenger.
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